Always a history buff, I went back to look at some state polls in April 2000 to see how Gore was faring against Bush. It's surprising to see how poorly Gore was doing in April, even in states he would ultimately win. With this information, I feel pretty good about where Kerry is situated on a state-by-state basis.
Illinois
Bush 44, Gore 42, Buchanan 3
A Mason-Dixon, conducted 4/12-14/00, surveyed 622 likely Illinois voters; margin of error +
- 4%.
Louisiana
Bush 45, Gore 34, Buchanan 4
A Southern Media and Opinion Research poll; conducted 4/6-15/00; surveyed 700 regis. Louisiana voters; margin of error +
- 3.8%.
Michigan
Bush 42, Gore 42
An EPIC/MRA poll, conducted 4/9-13/00, surveyed 600 likely Michigan voters; margin of error +- 4%.
New Hampshire
Gore 45, Bush 33
An American Research Group poll, conducted 3/13-14/00, surveyed 600 New Hampshire adults, 540 of whom are regis. voters; margin of error of the whole sample, +
- 4%; margin of error for the RV sample; +- 4.25%.
New Jersey
Gore 50, Bush 37
A Quinnipiac College poll, conducted 3/21-27/00, surveyed 1,177 regis. New Jersey voters; margin of error +
- 2.9%.
New Mexico
Bush 41, Gore 41
A Research and Polling Inc. poll conducted 3/14-16/00 surveyed 408 regis. New Mexico voters; margin of error +- 5%.
New York
Gore 49, Bush 38
A Marist Inst. poll, conducted 3/27-28/00, surveyed 561 regis. New York voters; margin of error +
- 4%.
North Carolina
Bush 49, Gore 39, Buchanan 2
Mason-Dixon; conducted 4/24-26/00; surveyed 624 likely North Carolina voters; margin of error +- 4%.
Ohio
Bush 47, Gore 39, Nader 4, Buchanan 3
Bush 51, Gore 42
Univ. of Cincinnati; conducted 4/5-22/00, surveyed 531 likely Ohio voters; margin of error +
- 4.3%.
Oregon
Bush 40, Gore 37, Nader 7, Buchanan 2, Browne 2
Portland Oregonian/KATU-TV; conducted 4/10-4/17/00 by Davis and Hibbitts Inc., surveyed 504 likely Oregon voters; margin of error +- 4.4%.
Pennsylvania
Bush 44, Gore 40, Buchanan 5
Mason-Dixon; conducted 3/28-30/00 for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, surveyed 416 likely Pennsylvania general election voters; margin of error +
- 5%.
Washington
Bush 39, Gore 38
The Elway Poll, conducted 4/11-12/00, surveyed 400 regis. Washington voters; margin of error +- 5.5%.
West Virginia
Bush 47, Gore 38
The West Virginia Poll; conducted 4/19-25/00 by Ohio State U.'s Center for Survey Research for the Charleston Daily Mail, WSAZ NewsChannel 3 and AP; surveyed 599 regis. West Virginia voters; margin of error +
- 4%.
Wisconsin
Bush 46, Gore 46
A St. Norbert's College poll, conducted 3/9-23/00, surveyed 574 Wisconsin adults; margin of error +- 4%.
Polls from http://www.duke.edu/~rml5/RA/Aldrich/wh2000gen_state2.htm and related pages