Arnold's Initiatives On The Ropes

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Tuesday November 01, 2005 · 9:43 AM PST

2005/11/01 · 09:43

According to the most respected California poll, the Field Poll, released today (Nov. 1), California voters are poised to reject each of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's four main "reform" initiatives. Props 74 (public school teacher tenure), 75 (public employee union dues), 76 (state spending and school funding limits), and 77 (redistricting) not only have more opposition than support, they are also doing worse last week than they were the week before.

Details at:
http://field.com/...

More below. Read More

Oregon Voting Boffo

CADem

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Thursday October 28, 2004 · 3:03 PM PDT

2004/10/28 · 15:03

Through yesterday, October 27, nearly 1 million Oregonians (45% of the registered voters) had mailed in their ballots.

By comparison, at the same point before the 2000 election, barely more than 600,000 Oregonians (31% of the registered voters) had mailed in their ballots.

Ultimately, roughly 1.6 million Oregonians voted in 2000, 80% of the registered voters. Given the pace in 2004, that number could approach 2 million voters and exceed 90% of registered voters.

Now that's the level of participation I'd like to see everywhere around the country!

http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/elechp.htm

Early Voting: TN Already Ahead of 2000 (w/poll)

CADem

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Tuesday October 26, 2004 · 1:09 PM PDT

2004/10/26 · 13:09

In 2000, roughly 2 million people voted in Tennessee, about 750,000 by early voting.

Already in 2004, with 3 days of early voting left to go, nearly 800,000 people have voted. At this rate, roughly 1 million people will vote early, a 33% increase from 2000.

What's the latest word from across the country on early voting? Read More

Gallup: Gore Down 10 At This Point in 2000

CADem

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Monday October 18, 2004 · 5:17 PM PDT

2004/10/18 · 17:17

The (in)famous Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll of "likely voters" showed Bush up 50-40 at this point in 2000.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/20/tracking.poll/index.html

Note that Gallup did not release results on 10/18/00 or 10/19/00 because they wanted to wait until they had three days after the last debate, so the above 10/20/00 is the most comparable poll.

How State Polls Looked on Election Eve 2000

CADem for Daily Kos

Community

Friday October 15, 2004 · 4:03 PM PDT

2004/10/15 · 16:03

(From the diaries -- kos)

Given all the gnashing of teeth about each state poll, I decided to look back into the archives and see what the last pre-election state polls looked like on election eve 2000 (courtesy of the Hotline):

Bush had leads outside the MOE in 22 states for 174 EVs, with 10 states/114 EVs for Gore.

Including leads within the MOE, Bush led in 28 states with 243 EVs and Gore led in 16 states with 262 EVs.

See below for some interesting and not so interesting tidbits: Read More

Election Protection

CADem

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Monday September 27, 2004 · 11:38 AM PDT

2004/09/27 · 11:38

How many here at dailyKos are involved in the Election Protection effort sponsored by People for the American Way, NAACP, Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights, etc.? It's a non-partisan group that is doing poll monitoring (both lawyers and non-lawyers) and responding to voting rights issues before and on election day (primarily lawyers), focusing in areas that have had problems historically. They are also sponsoring the 1-866-OUR-VOTE hotline, which anyone nationwide can call for assistance with voting issues.

For more information, or to sign up, go to http://www.electionprotection.org.

Don't forget to take the poll.

September 1992, 1996 & 2000

CADem

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Tuesday September 14, 2004 · 8:39 AM PDT

2004/09/14 · 08:39

A bit of historical perspective:

In mid-September 1992, Clinton was ahead of Bush by roughly 10% in the national polls and, in the electoral vote, was leading in states with over 300 electoral votes. (Clinton ultimately won by about 5% in the popular vote and received 370 electoral votes)

In mid-September 1996, Clinton was ahead of Dole by an average of 15% (with few polls within single digits) in the national polls and, in the electoral vote, was leading in states with over 400 electoral votes. (Clinton ultimately won by about 8% and received 379 electoral votes)

Does anyone have comparable information for mid-September 2000?

Richard Morrison's First Ad

CADem

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Monday September 13, 2004 · 4:48 PM PDT

2004/09/13 · 16:48

I just watched TX congressional candidate Richard Morrison's first TV ad (Morrison is a dailyKos dozen member running against Tom DeLay).

I really like what I know about Morrison and have given him some money through dailyKos, but this ad seems to me to be Exhibit A in how not to win as a challenger. Read More

DNC Soliciting $$ At California Groceries

CADem

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Monday September 06, 2004 · 2:19 PM PDT

2004/09/06 · 14:19

Just got back from running out to grab a sandwich for lunch (working on Labor Day - ah, the irony). Saw teams of two young women wearing light blue DNC t-shirts outside of two separate grocery stores in downtown Menlo Park, California. For those unfamiliar with the area, MP is just a stone's throw from Stanford and 35 miles south of San Francisco. Lots of sun, lots of money (esp. tech), lots of Democrats.

Chatted with one of the women outside of Dreger's. They are raising money for the DNC to support efforts in the swing states. Gave $100 and wished them well.

I was pleased to see them out, and wouldn't be surprised if they have some success raising coin in this area. My only concern was that they didn't seem to have voter registration forms or other materials about the Party, Kerry/Edwards, etc. Anyone else seen DNC folks in their area?

K/E Up 16 in California

CADem

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Tuesday August 17, 2004 · 8:17 AM PDT

2004/08/17 · 08:17

The latest poll out of California, by the respected Public Policy Institute of California, shows Kerry/Edwards up 16 over Bush/Cheney, 54-38 (Gore won by roughly 12 points in 2000). K/E are up 64-25 among independents, 68-26 among Latinos, and 58-34 among women.

Perhaps most interesting is that liberals are more engaged in the election than are conservatives, and that voters of all stripes are much more engaged than they were at this time 4 years ago.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/S_804MBCAGS.pdf

Kerry's Sister Souljah Moment?

CADem

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Monday July 05, 2004 · 11:15 AM PDT

2004/07/05 · 11:15

Could picking Gephardt and thereby giving the proverbial finger to Dean, anti-war Americans, and the blogosphere be Kerry's "Sister Souljah Moment"? Read More

Where Were We in April 2000?

CADem

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Thursday April 29, 2004 · 1:46 PM PDT

2004/04/29 · 13:46

Always a history buff, I went back to look at some state polls in April 2000 to see how Gore was faring against Bush. It's surprising to see how poorly Gore was doing in April, even in states he would ultimately win. With this information, I feel pretty good about where Kerry is situated on a state-by-state basis. Read More

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